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On this page Half-time lead by size
How often does the half-time leader win in Gaelic football?
The team in front at half-time won 84 of the 113 championship games that had a leader in 2025 and 2026, about three in four. The size of the lead decides most of it. A lead of one or two points held only 16 times out of 29; from three points up, leaders won about four games in five. Even seven points was not safe: seven teams lost a lead that big.
Data checked on : all 120 All-Ireland SFC games of 2025 and 2026, provincial championships included, with the half-time and final score of each.
Half-time lead by size
Every game counts once, from the point of view of the team in front at the break. Seven games were level at half-time and sit outside this table. Results are final results, so the ten games that went to extra time count as they finished.
| Lead at half-time | Games | Won | Drew | Lost | Won % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or 2 points | 29 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 55% |
| 3 or 4 points | 29 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 79% |
| 5 or 6 points | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 80% |
| 7 points or more | 40 | 33 | 0 | 7 | 83% |
| All leads | 113 | 84 | 2 | 27 | 74% |
Our count. A goal is three points and a two-pointer two. Download the data (CSV).
The line sits at three points. Below it, a half-time lead is close to a coin toss: 12 of 29 teams one or two up lost. From three points up the leader won about four in five, and the rate barely rises after that. Leads of seven or more were converted 83% of the time, leads of three or four 79%.
The patternA one or two-point lead at the break held only a little more often than not, 16 times in 29. Three or more makes the leader a strong favourite, but leads of up to ten points were still overturned.
The biggest comebacks of 2025 and 2026
Seven teams turned around a half-time deficit of seven points or more. Every half-time score below was checked against a match report.
| Game | Half-time | Final | Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulster semi-final, 2 May 2026 | Derry 2-10 Monaghan 0-6 | Monaghan 1-30 Derry 3-23 (after extra time) | 10 |
| Leinster quarter-final, 13 April 2025 | Offaly 0-15 Meath 0-5 | Meath 1-25 Offaly 0-21 | 10 |
| All-Ireland round 1, 23 May 2026 | Meath 1-16 Cork 0-11 | Cork 0-30 Meath 1-24 | 8 |
| All-Ireland group round 3, 14 June 2025 | Armagh 0-15 Galway 0-7 | Galway 2-22 Armagh 0-27 | 8 |
| All-Ireland round 3, 20 June 2026 | Meath 2-8 Mayo 0-7 | Mayo 0-22 Meath 2-13 | 7 |
| All-Ireland quarter-final, 28 June 2025 | Monaghan 1-15 Donegal 0-11 | Donegal 1-26 Monaghan 1-20 | 7 |
| All-Ireland group round 2, 1 June 2025 | Clare 0-14 Monaghan 0-7 | Monaghan 1-25 Clare 1-16 | 7 |
Half-time scores from GAA.ie (Derry v Monaghan, Cork v Meath, Mayo v Meath, Monaghan v Clare), HoganStand (Donegal v Monaghan, Meath v Offaly) and the Irish Echo (Galway v Armagh).
Monaghan are on both sides of it. They came back from seven down against Clare and from ten down against Derry, and threw away seven up against Donegal in the 2025 All-Ireland quarter-final.
The All-Ireland final itself was a small comeback. Kerry went in 1-8 to 0-10 ahead, and Mayo won 1-20 to 1-17 (GAA.ie).
Is a five-point lead safe?
After the first round of the 2025 League, with the new rules one weekend old, Roscommon manager Davy Burke said: "You could be five or six up or down and you're right in the game" (GAA.ie).
Two championships later, the numbers half agree. A team five or six down at half-time won 2 of 15 games and drew one, so a team that far down was rarely back in the game. But the bigger leads were not the safe ground they look: seven of 40 teams with a lead of seven or more lost. In a game where scores now average close to 48 points, as our two-point score statistics show, there is a lot of scoring still to come after the break.
Provincial games against the All-Ireland series
Leads held better in the provincial championships. Half-time leaders won 45 of 57 provincial games, 79%, against 39 of 56 in the All-Ireland series, 70%. Both draws in the whole set came in the All-Ireland series.
Then and now
The last count we found of this question is from 2015. The Irish Times counted 62 football championship games up to early September that year, and the half-time leader won 47 of them, 76 per cent. Those 62 include the games that were level at the break (The Irish Times). On the same basis, every game counted, the leader won 84 of our 120 games, 70%.
Six percentage points over two different eras and different-sized samples is a hint, not proof.
How we counted
The 120 games are every provincial and All-Ireland senior football championship game of 2025 and 2026; the Tailteann Cup is not included. Half-time scores come from the match records on Wikipedia's season pages. For six 2025 games with no half-time score there, we used the HoganStand match report. Final scores include extra time where it was played, and a game won on penalties after a draw would count as a draw; none of these 120 was. The CSV lists every game with both scores, the result for the half-time leader and the source.
Frequently asked questions
How often does the team leading at half-time win?
In the 2025 and 2026 football championships, 84 times in 113 games that had a half-time leader, 74%. With a lead of three points or more it was about four in five.
What is the biggest half-time comeback in recent championship football?
In 2025 and 2026, ten points, twice: Meath from 0-5 to 0-15 down against Offaly in the 2025 Leinster quarter-final, and Monaghan from 0-6 to 2-10 down against Derry in the 2026 Ulster semi-final, which they won after extra time.
Is a two-point lead at half-time safe?
No. Teams one or two points up at the break won 16 of 29 games and lost 12.